Football finance expert Adam Williams has explained why Goncalo Guedes and Fabio Silva would be better staying at Wolves.
The summer transfer window has been a breath of fresh air for Wolves fans following the lows of the 2023 market.
Julen Lopetegui watched as key players left the club to help ease Financial Fair Play (FFP) woes, weakening the squad’s depth significantly.
The job was beyond repair in Lopetegui’s eyes as he left his post at Molineux days before the 2023/24 campaign kicked off, leaving Gary O’Neil to navigate through the season with limited options.
So far, O’Neil has only parted ways with one key player, as Max Kilman joined West Ham in a deal Wolves couldn’t refuse to generate profit.
The club don’t have millions to spend although, O’Neil and Matt Hobbs have invested well regardless, with upcoming stars Pedro Lima, Rodrigo Gomes, Tommy Doyle and Jorgen Strand Larsen signing on.
Things are different this summer because they had to be, although, in an opposing stance to last year’s max exodus, Wolves have been warned that some sales may not be financially beneficial.
Finance expert says Wolves will be financially stronger by not selling Goncalo Guedes and Fabio Silva
Finances in football are difficult to understand, particularly with the clamp put on spending by the Premier League through the Profit and Sustainability Rule (PSR).
To get an insight into Wolves’ financial situation this summer, Molineux News spoke exclusively to TBR’s Head of Football Content, Business, Finance & Governance Adam Williams.
Williams started by acknowledging O’Neil’s understanding of Fosun’s reservations when it comes to investing in the club’s transfer kitty.
“Gary O’Neil has previously said that he doesn’t expect funds to be available unless there are player sales this summer.
“That might be a capital issue, with owners not looking to invest any more cash into the club.
“But even if that is the case, I don’t think it will necessarily make a material impact this window as the club were flirting with the upper limit of the PSR threshold in any case.”
Guedes and Silva sales won’t help Wolves’ PSR situation
The football finance expert continued by explaining the positive impact that the sale of Kilman would have had on Wolves’ PSR situation however, explained why sales may not always assist the books.
“Kilman’s departure will have helped in that regard. But any additions will have to be fully costed.
“Silva has two years left on his deal, while Guedes has three. That means Silva’s book value is now around £14m, while Guedes’ is about £12m.
“Those figures might not be 100 per cent accurate, but they are in that ballpark.
“The problem is, if they sell the players for less than their book value, which is calculated according to their original transfer fee spread out over the length of their contracts, that will actually negatively impact their PSR position.”
Wolves paid £27.5m to sign Goncalo Guedes back in 2022, with Nuno Santo taking a terrible gamble on Fabio Silva as he signed the forward from Porto for an eye-watering £35m.
Despite the duo needing to offloaded after not making the cut at Molineux over the years, Williams further explained how the pair could financially impact the club even after leaving.
“Wolves find themselves in a position in which they may actually be able to spend more in terms of PSR if they choose not to sell the players.
“Obviously, you have to balance that calculation with the elimination of their wages in the event of a sale. That’s where it gets more complex.”
Transfer approach at Wolves has changed under Gary O’Neil
Given how much Wolves struggled in the summer of 2023 due to FFP restraints, it was always expected that the approach in the market would change.
It’s already abundantly clear that the club are in safe hands with O’Neil and Hobbs working closely together to identify cost-effective signings.
Williams backed Wolves’ approach in the transfer window to continue to adopt more of a “conservative approach” than before due to Fosun’s lack of funding.
“I think it is emblematic of why some clubs choose to take a more conservative approach in the transfer market.
“That might be the route Wolves take in the future, especially if Fosun are not willing to bankroll financial losses.”